Real estate in 2014 will be in recession
real estate in 2014 will be entering a recession?! On December 17, Goldman Sachs published policy reached this conclusion in the report.
many people predict the time of China's real estate bubble would soon burst, Goldman's report seems to confirm this hypothesis.
first, in the report, Goldman said, deepening reform of the capital market will expand investment channels. Financial product threshold will drop, other types of innovative financial products will emerge, which will lead to some investment buyers left the real estate market, and this will make one or two cities home sales declined.
Secondly, the current prices are too high, decline in market affordability, are also important reasons real estate entered a recession. Data report said: "2013 during the first 10 months, house prices rose in first-tier cities and part of the second-tier cities 9-21%, we believe that the market capacity has diminished. As the 2014 liquidity tightening, mortgage rates will rise, mortgage purchase will be further reduced. With 2013 real estate sales and the surge in savings/property sales ratio has fallen to a record low. "
in addition, seen from the composition of the buyers, starting from 2010, 18-25, buyers began to rise, almost 2/3. But because the income is below the Community average income, so most likely parents in order to bypass the restrictions of home buyers to purchase on behalf of the children, is outside the investment purchase. Therefore, the proportion of young buyers in 2014, it is difficult to rise further. This is a judgment of 2014 real estate entered a recession.
addition made outside of China real estate in 2014 will be entering a recession, Goldman also 2014 land supply is expected to reach an all-time high. Recently introduced a new regulating measures for the City Government said that in order to curb price rises, in 2014, the land supply in 2013 will be at least on the level of 20%. "We think local governments under financial pressure have the power to sell the land. ”